Kent2 — 8-unit variant

Executive summary — hybrid 4 + 4 model (Zhongshan industrial)

Location: Industrial mixed-use zone near Zhongshan, Guangdong
Asset: L2 of existing 5-story 15 × 30 m building · shell, W stair, industrial elevator, E stair already in place · 2 m gaps to neighbors E/W
Program: 8 holiday/rental units, 36–49 m² each, all squarish (1.0–1.25 : 1), every unit has its own front door on the central spine and reaches all 3 cores
Operating model: 4 Airbnb (corners: N1, N3, S2, S4) + 4 monthly leases (mids: N2, N4, S1, S3)
Fit-out cost: ¥1,983,000 (≈ US $275k · ¥248k/unit · ¥4,400/m²)
Annual gross: ¥270,750 (Airbnb ¥180,750 + monthly ¥90,000)
Annual NOI: ¥190,200 (Airbnb ¥117,500 net + monthly ¥72,700 net)
Cap rate: 9.6% on fit-out cost
Simple payback: 10.4 years
Operational load: Medium — 4 daily-turn units balanced by 4 set-and-forget leases that absorb baseline ops cost
Key risk: Zhongshan 民宿 (B&B) licensing for short-term rental in industrial zone — must verify with 公安 / 城管 before underwriting Airbnb side

Why hybrid: the 4 corner units (double-aspect daylight, 39–49 m²) command an Airbnb premium that pays for the operational overhead of the entire floor. The 4 mid units sit on stable monthly cash flow that covers baseline costs even if Airbnb occupancy disappoints in year 1. Net result: ~62% higher NOI than all-monthly with only half the daily-turnover labor of all-Airbnb.

Program

floor: L2 of 5
floorplate: 15 × 30 m = 450 m²
units: 8 holiday rentals
blocks: 2×2 north (y 0–13 m) + 2×2 south (y 18–30 m)
circulation: 1.5 m N–S spine (west of elevator) + 1.0 m E–W core link
cores: fixed: W stair · elevator · E stair (all in middle band y 13–18 m)
access: every unit has its own front door on the spine

Area budget

zone	m²	%
units (8)	~338	75%
N–S spine (1.5 × 30)	~45	10%
E–W core link (1.0 × 9)	~9	2%
cores (W stair + elev + E stair)	~37	8%
walls	~21	5%
total	450	100%

Floor 2 — 8-unit plan around fixed cores

Unit interior layouts for the tenant mix → see /kent3.

Unit schedule

unit	size (m)	area	aspect	exposure
NW1	3.9 × 6.0	24 m²	1.54 : 1	NW corner — N + W
NW2	3.9 × 6.0	24 m²	1.54 : 1	W gap
NE1	7.9 × 6.0	47 m²	1.32 : 1	NE corner — N + E
NE2	7.9 × 6.0	47 m²	1.32 : 1	E gap
SW1	3.9 × 6.0	24 m²	1.54 : 1	W gap
SW2	3.9 × 6.0	24 m²	1.54 : 1	SW corner — W + S
SE1	7.9 × 6.0	47 m²	1.32 : 1	E gap
SE2	7.9 × 6.0	47 m²	1.32 : 1	SE corner — E + S

Vs. Kent (6 units)

	/kent v1	/kent v2	/kent (fixed cores)	/kent2 (fixed cores)
units	6	6	6	8
avg unit	51 m²	51 m²	~55 m²	42 m²
aspect ratio (range)	1 : 3.5	1 : 1.5	~1 : 1.3	1 : 1 – 1.25
circulation	~45 m²	~50 m²	~50 m²	~54 m²
units w/ 2 windows	0	4	4	4
units w/ window	6 / 6	6 / 6	6 / 6	8 / 8
cores	S end	S end	central (fixed)	central (fixed)
access to all 3 cores	yes	yes	yes	yes

Design notes

Fixed cores drive the parti. The existing W stair, industrial elevator, and E stair sit in a central band at y = 13–18 m and cannot move. Kent2 splits the floorplate into a north block (4 units, 13 m deep) and a south block (4 units, 12 m deep), with the core band in between.
Squarish units. All 8 units fall in a tight 1.00 : 1 to 1.25 : 1 aspect range. N1/N2 are the largest (7.5 × 6.5 m ≈ 49 m²); S3/S4 are the smallest but perfectly square (6 × 6 m = 36 m²). A king bed + bath + kitchenette + sitting area fits every unit.
Front doors, no shared vestibules. Every unit opens directly onto the 1.5 m N–S spine. The spine runs the full 30 m length along x = 7.5–9.0 m, immediately west of the elevator. West-column doors face east; east-column doors face west.
All 3 cores reachable from every unit. The spine meets a 1 m E–W core link inside the core band (y = 15–16 m) that connects the W stair east door, the elevator west door, and the E stair west door. Any unit → spine → core link → any core. Two independent stairs = compliant 2-exit egress.
Daylight. 4 double-aspect corner units (N1 NW, N3 NE, S2 SW, S4 SE) and 4 single-aspect units through the 2 m east/west building gaps. Every unit gets at least one window wall; no internal units.
Drainage. Wet walls back onto the spine so all 8 stacks drop into the core band ceiling plenum and run west to the existing sewer exit. No stack crosses a core.

Construction budget — fit-out only (shell + cores existing)

Existing 5-story shell with W stair, industrial elevator, and E stair already in place. Scope is L2 fit-out only: partitions, MEP rough-in, bathrooms, kitchenettes, finishes, FF&E. Numbers in CNY (¥) for Guangdong industrial-zone mid-spec residential conversion, late 2025 / early 2026.

line item	basis	cost (¥)
Partitions, doors, finishes	~413 m² × ¥1,800/m²	743,000
Plumbing — 8 wet walls + stacks tied to existing risers	8 baths × ¥18,000	144,000
Electrical sub-panel + unit metering + lighting	8 units × ¥14,000	112,000
HVAC — 8 split A/C, ducted exhaust	8 × ¥9,000	72,000
Bathroom fit-out (waterproofing, tile, fixtures)	8 × ¥22,000	176,000
Kitchenette (counter, sink, induction, fridge)	8 × ¥12,000	96,000
FF&E (bed, sofa, table, TV, decor)	8 × ¥28,000	224,000
Corridor + south lobby finishes	~75 m² × ¥1,200	90,000
Fire alarm, sprinkler tap-in, signage	lump	60,000
Permits, design, inspection (CN local)	~5%	86,000
Contingency	10%	180,000
TOTAL		¥1,983,000
per unit		¥248,000
per m² (gross L2)		¥4,400

Revenue — Airbnb / short-term rental

Guangdong industrial mixed-use zone — demand mix: business travelers, weekend visitors, transient labor. Lower ADR than Shenzhen city center but higher than long-let. Conservative 55% occupancy.

unit	m²	ADR (¥/night)	occupancy	annual gross
N1, N2	49	260	55%	¥104,400
S1, S2	45	240	55%	¥96,400
N3, N4	39	220	55%	¥88,400
S3, S4	36	180	55%	¥72,300
8-unit gross				¥361,500/yr
− platform fees (15%) + cleaning + utilities + management (~35% total)				−¥126,500
Net Operating Income (NOI)				¥235,000/yr
cap rate on fit-out cost				11.9%
simple payback				8.4 years

Revenue — Monthly long-term rental

Industrial-zone monthly studio rates in Guangdong (Dongguan / Foshan / Zhongshan band, late 2025). Tenants: factory engineers, white-collar workers, young families. Vacancy ~5%.

unit	m²	monthly (¥)	annual (¥)	x2 units
N1, N2	49	2,200	26,400	¥52,800
S1, S2	45	2,000	24,000	¥48,000
N3, N4	39	1,700	20,400	¥40,800
S3, S4	36	1,600	19,200	¥38,400
8-unit gross				¥180,000/yr
− vacancy (5%) − maintenance / mgmt / tax (~15% total)				−¥36,000
NOI				¥144,000/yr
cap rate				7.3%
simple payback				13.8 years

Strategy comparison

scenario	NOI / yr	cap rate	payback	operational load
All Airbnb (8)	¥235,000	11.9%	8.4 yr	high — daily turnover, cleaning, platform mgmt
All monthly (8)	¥144,000	7.3%	13.8 yr	low — set & forget
★ Hybrid: 4 Airbnb (corners) + 4 monthly [selected]	¥190,200	9.6%	10.4 yr	medium

Recommendation: the hybrid model is the highest risk-adjusted return. Run the 4 corner units (N1, N3, S2, S4) as Airbnb — they have the best light, biggest area, and command a price premium that justifies the operational overhead. Run the 4 mid units (N2, N4, S1, S3) on monthly leases to lock in baseline cash flow and absorb the cleaning/management overhead from the Airbnb side.

Hybrid 4 + 4 — detailed pro forma

Zhongshan industrial-zone rates. 4 corner units on Airbnb (premium ADR justified by double-aspect daylight + larger size); 4 mid units on monthly leases.

unit	m²	mode	rate	annual gross	opex	annual NOI
N1 (NW corner)	49	Airbnb	¥260 · 55%	¥52,200	−35%	¥33,930
N3 (NE corner)	39	Airbnb	¥220 · 55%	¥44,200	−35%	¥28,730
S2 (SW corner)	45	Airbnb	¥240 · 55%	¥48,200	−35%	¥31,330
S4 (SE corner)	36	Airbnb	¥180 · 55%	¥36,150	−35%	¥23,500
Airbnb subtotal				¥180,750		¥117,490
N2 (mid-W)	49	monthly	¥2,200/mo	¥26,400	−15%	¥22,440
N4 (mid-E)	39	monthly	¥1,700/mo	¥20,400	−15%	¥17,340
S1 (mid-W)	45	monthly	¥2,000/mo	¥24,000	−15%	¥20,400
S3 (mid-E)	36	monthly	¥1,600/mo	¥19,200	−15%	¥16,320
Monthly subtotal				¥90,000		¥76,500
HYBRID TOTAL				¥270,750		¥193,990

metric	value
Annual NOI	¥193,990
Cap rate (NOI / fit-out cost)	9.78%
Simple payback	10.2 years
Year-1 cash-on-cash (assume 100% equity)	9.78%
10-year cumulative NOI (no rate growth)	¥1,939,900 ≈ recovery of fit-out
10-year cumulative NOI (3%/yr rate growth)	¥2,225,000

Sensitivity — what could move the answer

variable	downside	base	upside	NOI Δ
Airbnb occupancy	40%	55%	70%	±¥32k
Airbnb ADR	−20%	base	+20%	±¥23k
Monthly rent	−15%	base	+15%	±¥11k
Construction overrun	+20% (¥2.38M)	¥1.98M	−5% (¥1.88M)	cap rate 8.1% / 10.3%
Local 民宿 ban	all-monthly mode	hybrid	—	NOI → ¥144k (cap 7.3%)

Worst credible case: Airbnb gets banned mid-year-1, all 8 units fall back to monthly. NOI drops to ¥144k, payback stretches to 13.8 yr. Still positive cash flow, no loss of principal — the design works as a long-let building even if the short-let upside disappears.

Assumptions & sensitivities

Currency: CNY (¥). USD ≈ ¥7.2.
Construction: shell + structure + cores existing and free. Only L2 fit-out is in budget. ¥4,400/m² gross is mid-spec for Guangdong residential conversion; high-spec would be ¥6,000+/m².
Airbnb ADR: based on listings in Dongguan / Foshan / Zhongshan industrial zones. Premium tourist destinations (Shenzhen Bay, Zhuhai) would justify 1.5–2× ADR.
Occupancy 55%: conservative; well-managed industrial-zone Airbnbs in Guangdong reach 65–70% post-launch year. Each +5% occupancy ≈ +¥21,000 NOI.
Monthly rents: reflect formal lease pricing. Informal labor housing runs 30–50% lower; high-end serviced apartments 40–80% higher.
Not modeled: property tax (~1% of assessed value if applicable), mortgage interest, depreciation, ground-floor commercial income (3 roll-ups on L1), business license / 民宿 permit cost (¥5–15k one-time), VAT on short-term rental revenue (6%).
Risk flags: CN short-term rental regulations vary by city — some Guangdong municipalities require 民宿 (B&B) licensing or prohibit Airbnb in mixed-use industrial zones. Verify with local 公安 / 城管 before committing to the Airbnb pro forma.

Open questions

S1 and S3 lose south frontage to S2/S4 corners — acceptable given 2 m gap light still reaches them from W/E.
Spine is 30 m long. Consider a mid-spine widening at the core band as a passing zone / mail area (already partially provided by the E–W core link).
N3/N4/S3/S4 are noticeably smaller than N1/N2/S1/S2 because the elevator+E stair eat 6 m of east-col width. Could rebalance by pushing spine east, but that would narrow the west column below 7 m.